Read this First 11/2/2020
GO VOTE .. Unless you're one of the 95 Million that already voted. Do you think this "mail in balloting" will lead to record voter turnout? Or will almost nobody actually go to the polls tomorrow? I think that the mail in thing really hurt Trump. The Hunter Biden thing is gaining some traction and the polls are swinging, BIGLY (as some might say it) .. I think early fence sitters already picked Biden and will be too lazy to try and change.... and..
I tell you what .. all of these polls are saying Biden is ahead by 10% here.. 12% there.. 85 in this "swing state" .. If these guys are THIS wrong again they need to resign... You can't screw up THAT bad with Clinton and then NOT fix your polling strategy..
A massive earthquake hit Turkey and Greece, Friday afternoon. Rescuers are still sifting through the rubble from the 7.0 quake that left 81 dead, mostly in the city of Izmir. The city has many old buildings and buildings that are not up to what we would call, "Code". Many of the buildings collapsed or are now leaning over and a threat to fall.... and..
In South Korea thirty years ago, 10 murders took place over 5 years by a serial killer. One man was wrongfully convicted and is going through a re-trial. New DNA evidence has linked the murders to a man named, Lee Chung-jae. He came to testify at the other guys' retrial and said, "Yeah, I killed that girl not him... and I killed the other nine.. and I can't believe it took them so long to find me. The police questioned me back then while I was wearing the watch of one of the victims and let me go with a warning because I didn't have my I.D. card." .. Wow.. Lee is in prison for life after raping and killing his sister in law in 1994. How does it take so long to figure this stuff out?
Famed reporter Glen Greenwald has resigned from the news site "The Intercept" .. even though he FOUNDED IT .. The NY Editors of the site refused to run his story about Hunter Biden without editing most of it out. Greenwald said his sources were solid and the evidence that Fox News had was damning. The editors called his claims "unfounded" and said they just needed proof to back up his "innuendo" (which I thought was an Italian suppository). Greenwald claims the bias in the media has gotten completely out of control and he has had it with the censorship, even at his OWN publication... Greenwald won a Pulitzer in 2014 for his reporting on the NSA.. The editors?.. well.. NOT ..
In Da Swamp: If you thought Obamacare was expensive just wait for "Badakathcare". Joe Biden had yet another gaffe yesterday when he was trying to Zing Trump on healthcare. "President Trump thinks healthcare is a privilege. Barrack and I think it's a right to have Badakathcare" .. Then he called himself, "Grandmom" .. Then he proudly told a group of supporters in Philly that he wore his warm, "Eagles Jacket" while wearing a Delaware Mud hens coat.. Ummm. OK, Joe...and..
You're FIRED.. The talk is that President Trump plans to reprise his role from, "The Apprentice" and tell Dr. Fauci, "YOU'RE FIRED" right after the election. The guy is 80 years old.. Shouldn't it be, "You're re-TIRED"?? .. Trump thinks Fauci was over-cautious and made him look bad.. well.. whatever.. Doctors get paid to give advice. The President decides how to proceed. Anyways, he's 80.. I think that we should make that the limit in DC. Whether it's Trump, Biden, Pelosi, McConnell or ANY of them.. 10 years in office MAXIMUM and you gotta leave when you're 80 and go home to play golf, fish, or write a book...
For all of you out there that don't think there is any "Deep State" or anything like that.. Tucker Carlson was in LA to interview the man that revealed all the Hunter Biden documents.. and. another shipment of documents and evidence were delivered to Carlson at Fox Studios. He had them overnighted to LA.. and.. the package, "WENT MISSING". UPS did a thorough investigation and eventually found it.. UPS ain't giving specifics about who took it and how they found him/her... and..
Brian Gay birdies the first playoff hole to win the Bermuda Championship for his first win in 7 years. (Gay is 49.. so.. if you bet my "Over 40 or under 25 will win.. then. YOU WON).. My picks this week all melted in the heavy winds...
MLB: The Chicago White Sox shocked the sports world by brining 76 year old Tony LaRussa to manage the team.. Some are saying he is too old to "connect with the younger generation" .. Hmmm.. Guy has the third most wins of any manager ever.. and has 12 Division Titles, six League Championships and 3 World Series. Who can't "relate" to THAT !!??!?!
NFL: Giants/Bucs tonight. Tom Brady vs. Danny Dimes. Who ya Got? I'm just hoping my boys in blue don't lose by 20...
NCAAF: #1 Clemson had to comeback from a 28-13 halftime deficit. Their star QB Trevor Lawrence was OUT with Covid and Freshman DJ Uiagalelei got it in gear and led them to a 34-28 win. Lawrence is out next week against #4 Notre Dame which makes things REALLY interesting...
Aunt Becky is in the SLAMMER !!! .. Lori Loughlin has reported to prison to serve her two month term for the "College Bribery Scandal". She'll probably get out early due to over-crowding but she'll be a REAL "lady of interest" to those other inmates...and..
Another actor is headed to prison. Porn actor Ron Jeremey was already facing 3 sexual assault cases and he was hit with 7 more. He faces up to 300 years in prison if convicted on all counts. Guy is sleaze.. Good riddance...
Singer David Lee Roth has a new song that he has dedicated to his late band mate Eddie Van Halen... "Somewhere, Over the Rainbow.. Bar & Grill" HAHAHA !! Now, THAT is clever..
No Cash for You !!! Johnny Depp loses his Libel suit against British Tabloids. Depp claimed the the papers labeled him, "a wife beater" when he had never beaten his "then wife" Amber Heard. The judge seemed to disagree with Depp over the definition of "beat". No one will ever know what actually happened.. but. they're both nuts.. hopefully, they go away now...
Selena is FINE !!! .. Selena Gomez wants y'all to know she is FINE... Gomez did and Instagram Live interview and during the video fans caught a glimpse of an IV in her arm. She is telling her fans that it was just a "vitamin drip" and nothing to be worried about.. Well, I KNOW you're FINE, Selena... REALLY FINE.... HERE.. and you don't have to hide the scars.. I think they're sexy !!..
The major averages are coming off their worst monthly performance since March amid surging coronavirus infections, extinguished stimulus talks and a slump for Big Tech following quarterly earnings reports. The Dow closed out October with a 4.6% loss, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively, while volatility last week saw the VIX "fear gauge" spike to a four-month high. Traders seem a little more cheerful this morning as U.S. stock index futures climbed 1.5% to start the month, as the selloff leading up to Election Day may give the market less downside risk to a contested result. "Even though we're worried that there could still be one more wave down if we get another big influx of uncertainty, we think the stock market is now setting up nicely for a nice net advance over the next two months or so," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak.
While recent pressure on equity markets could be easing, oil prices slid on lingering worries that international lockdowns will sap energy demand. Off by nearly 6% overnight, crude futures have pared some losses, down 2.7% to $34.82/bbl. Libya and Iraq are also boosting their production, causing a rise in overall supply from OPEC+, despite having reduced quotas across its other members. While the group meets again on Nov. 10 and Dec. 1 to discuss policy, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of leeway for further reductions.
Keep an eye on tomorrow's edition of Wall Street Breakfast for potential stock and sector winners and losers of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Democratic nominee Joe Biden remains ahead of President Trump nationally and in battleground states, though some state races remain extremely close and we all know how the pollsters turned out in 2016. "Markets will have to figure out what will change in the next Congress and in the next administration," said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Lockdown or not... that is the question
Large parts of Europe are locking down again, while other countries are trying to resist the approach. The U.K. has announced a one-month national lockdown starting Thursday - that will ensure workers who are temporarily laid off receive 80% of their pay - joining France, Germany, Ireland, Austria and Belgium with pandemic-containment regimes similar to those imposed in the spring. Meanwhile, debt-averse Switzerland is trying to avoid another lockdown with a set of lighter restrictions, including mask mandates and bar/restaurant curfews, even as infection rates surpass those in neighboring France and Germany.
S&P Global Ratings sees global debt, as a percentage of GDP, swelling to a record 265% this year, and insolvencies and defaults rising to levels not seen since the 2009 crisis. A near-term crisis, though, is unlikely given the expected economic recovery, a COVID-19 vaccine by mid-2021, favorable financing conditions, and sovereign, corporate and household spending and borrowing behaviors. "The heavier corporate debt will delay the recovery of credit metrics beyond 2022 for the hardest hit sectors (such as airlines, leisure and oil and gas)," according to the report.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ICE) is on pace to regain the U.S. stock market listings crown from rival Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) this year after attracting bigger blank-check company IPOs than Nasdaq. So far, companies have raised $66B through listings on NYSE this year vs. $61B on Nasdaq (almost two-thirds of the proceeds raised on NYSE came from special purpose acquisition companies. The numbers from Dealogic, cited by the FT, don't include direct listings; Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) and Asana (NYSE:ASAN), both turning to NYSE, raised capital through the process in September.
New York requires negative coronavirus test
Doing away with the Tri-State Travel Advisory, Governor Andrew Cuomo is now requiring people coming to New York to test negative, with the exception of residents from the contiguous states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. Travelers must get tested for COVID-19 three days before arriving in the Empire State, and then quarantine for three days once they arrive (another test will be required on the fourth day, which could release them from quarantine). New York residents returning from travel under 24 hours outside the state do not need to take a test before coming back, however, they must take a test after returning.
Oregon may become first state to decriminalize hard drugs
Besides casting their votes for the presidential election, voters in Oregon this week will decide on decriminalizing hard drugs via a ballot initiative called Measure 110. The bill would decriminalize personal possession of less than one gram of heroin or methamphetamine; two grams of cocaine; 12 grams of psilocybin mushrooms; 40 doses of LSD, oxycodone or methadone; and one gram or five pills of MDMA. Instead of being arrested and facing possible jail time, users would have the option of paying $100 fines or attending free addiction recovery centers that would be funded by retail marijuana tax revenues. Oregon was the first state in the U.S. to decriminalize marijuana possession in 1973, and later approved medical use in 1998 and recreational use in 2014. Go Deeper: A flurry of psychedelic companies have hit the capital markets.
What else is happening...
Disney (NYSE:DIS) at center of debate on streaming/cinema future. Pandemic claims first U.S. retail REIT casualty. Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) to go private in $8.76B cash deal. EV maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) delivers 5,055 vehicles in October, growth of 100%. U.S. Commerce Department will 'vigorously defend' TikTok ban. China's manufacturing sector expands for sixth straight month.
In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong +1.5%. China flat. India +0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +1.6%. Frankfurt +1.8%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +1.7%. S&P +1.5%. Nasdaq +1.2%. Crude -2.7% to $34.81. Gold +0.4% at $1887.70. Bitcoin -1.7% to $13530. Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 0.86%
Today's Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 Construction Spending
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