Read this First 11/5/2019

ELECTION DAY !!! (Not to be confused with, "Envy Day".. we'll get to that later) The races that the "pundits" say are "important barometers" for the 2020 elections are: Will the "somewhat unpopular" Republican Governor of Kentucky, Matt Bevin, win? ... in Mississippi the Governor has been "Term Limited" out and the Lt. Gov. Rep. Tate Reeves takes on the Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood for that spot .. and in Virginia, Republicans hold House seats 51-48 and the Senate 20-19. Republicans have not "picked up" a seat there since 2009. .. We'll see ... and...


ENVY DAY is the day in Finland where they release EVERYONE's tax returns from the previous year. This is done for complete transparency so that everyone can see what the "Rich people" made and, more importantly, how much they paid in taxes. The day is nicknamed, "Envy Day", and there was controversy this year because 200 wealthy people were NOT on the list. There is some legal wrangling because some say the disclosure runs afoul of EU Privacy regulations...Hmmmm.... and...


In an announcement that surprises NO ONE, Iran plans to inject gas into centrifuges at a fuel enrichment plant, President Hassan Rouhani has announced, moving his country further away from the 2015 accord that limits Tehran’s nuclear development. Did anyone think he WOULD stick to the deal? ..and...


DON'T GO TO MEXICO !!! 9 are dead and 12 missing in what appears to be a Drug Cartel related shootout that may have targeted the "wrong people" . The dead and missing are mostly dual citizens from LaMora, Mexico with ties to the Mormon Church. Relatives in the USA are posting photos and stories online asking for help. The Mexican police and National Guard are investigating.. and...


UAW President Gary Jones is stepping aside amid a Federal investigation into corruption at the Union. The investigation has been going on for some time but one of Jone's deputies was just indicted for stealing $700,000 in Union dues and splitting it with the unnamed, "Official A". Hmmm.. any shot Jones is "Official A" ?? .. and shot he is NOT?? ... and...


In da SWAMP: You have former Orange Man Campaign financier, Roger Stone's trial starting. I have no idea if this guy is going to jail or not.. but this trial is going to be entertaining for the media. The Judge, Amy Jackson, has complained of "middle school behavior" rather than normal "pre-trial" action. Stone is a WHACKO, the Prosecution wants to play scenes from "The GodFather" in court..and the Prosecutors, "Star Witness" is Randy Credico. Randy is an addict that wants to have his AA Sponsor and his little white dog with him in court for "emotional support" so that he doesn't relapse due to anxiety. I feel sorry for that judge, don't you?? .... and..


Michael Flynn's lawyer is asking for a judge to dismiss all charges saying that fired FBI Agent Stork "doctored and changed" evidence in order to trick Flynn into a guilty plea. Flynn's lawyer has demanded a search of the FBI "Sentinel Database" to compare the doctored documents with the originals. Prosecutors says the changes were "minor and mostly grammatical". (Uhh.. the fact that they admitted their agent changed documents sounds pretty bad. Ill bet Flynn gets exonerated).. and...


The World Series Champion Washington Nationals visited the White House. The Nats adopted that stupid song, "Baby Shark" midseason and used it as a "good luck" charm. The Orange Man in the White House decided to play THAT SONG as the Team came out for the speech and photo shoot. If you think that song is AWFUL (and it is) it is even WORSE when a Military Band tries to play it. UGGHHHHH... Oh, and Catcher Kurt Suzuki wore a MAGA hat and now Nationals Fans are crushing him on Social Media... and..


Some FOOD related news .. Heinz and Unilever are in a little hot water after some of their products, that were advertised on a "Food Porn" page actually ended up on the Porn site, "PornHub". I guess the marketing people need to monitor "Click Overs" a little closer .. and.. Tragedy at what should have been a Magical Day. The Chicken Sandwich returned to Popeyes in Maryland. But, there was an argument over a sandwich and one patron stabbed another customer and he died in the parking lot. .... and...


What is WRONG with you KRISPY KREME!!!!????? .. College Senior, Jayson Gonzales noted there were NO KRISPY KREME doughnuts available in Minnesota. So, on weekends Jayson drove 270 miles to Iowa and brought back 100 boxes of Krispy Kremes to sell in his college town. Krispy Kreme ordered him to STOP!! They gave the "Lawyer babble" about crossing state lines and that their goal was to "ensure product quality and regulatory compliance to protect both Jayson and Krispy Kreme." .BLAH BLAH BLAH.. .


There is a HAPPY ENDING, though.. after contacting Jayson and learning that he was trying to pay off his student debt with this venture, the Home Office of Krispy Kreme announced today, "We admire Jayson's entrepreneurial spirit and love of Krispy Kremes. We will work with him as an independent contractor to ensure the quality of our product and will start by giving him 6,000 doughnuts (500 Boxes) for FREE" . WAHOOOOOOOO.. Free Krispy Kremes!!! THERE IS A GOD !!!! (Hear that Ricky Gervais??) ...


SPORTS: Blame the Black Cat!! A Black Cat ran on the field in the middle of the Giants/Cowboys game last night. After checking out the scene for a few minutes he ran off into the locker room area. The Giants were winning BEFORE the cat but lost 37-18. Was it the cat? or did the Cowboys just do some stupid stuff early (Interception, fumble, missed FG) and were gonna crush the Giants anyway? YOU make the Call .. and..

Tuesday is a tough sports day at this time of year. Does anyone really care about Basketball scores in November? Philly lost for the first time and is now 5-1. Is that "News".. NHL? Arizona beats Edmonton in OT? ..


How about GAMING? There is a HUGE SCANDAL going on in Fortnite!!! Champion Gamer FaZe Jarvis has been PERMANENTLY banned from Fortnite competitions after he admitted to using Aimbots. (They are a "Cheat" that make your aim better and help you kill people with better accuracy). Jarvis said he only used them in a "Fun Match" and never in Competition. Fans say a lifetime ban is too much. Fortnite says TOUGH.. the Integrity of the Game is #1 .. There was crying, too. I mean. they are like 16 years old...


CELEBRIDIOTS: Shia LaBeouf got some laughs at the Hollywood Film Awards when he thanked the officer that arrested him in Georgia two years ago. The mood very quickly changed when people realized he was serious. He said the arrest "changed his life". He thanked his sponsor and therapist and family and said he is now clean and sober. Will it stick? Lets hope so... ..and...


Actress Emma Watson is about to be 30 and calls herself, "Self-Coupled". She says she has no boyfriend and likes it. HERE ... Give it up, Emma. I'll take you back if you promise to use the CPAP machine and stop SNORING SO LOUD!!! The neighbors are happy you're gone because they can sleep now. But, Ill take you back if you do that magic thing, again... .. and ....


Kate Beckinsale is now, "Officially Single" again. Yes, I know she has been dating all over the world but her actual divorce from husband Len Wiseman was just finalized. He can't be too much of a "Wise" Man if he was cheating on Kate Beckinsale!!!!.. although.. it was with model CJ Franco.. who is like 15 years younger HERE .. but .. still.. I would take The Kate HERE ..

From SeekingAlpha.com


More highs are in store for the three major U.S. stock indexes as reports suggest the Trump administration is weighing whether to drop existing tariffs on $112B of Chinese imports (which were introduced at a 15% rate on Sept. 1). The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are ahead by 0.4% as the concession is seen as pausing the U.S.-China trade war. "Phase One" of the pact would include Chinese purchases of American farm goods, rules to deter currency manipulation and some provisions to protect intellectual property and open up Chinese industries to U.S. firms. Go deeper: Investor optimism is being seen around the globe, writes Marc Chandler.

Yuan strengthens past 7 per dollar

With the U.S. considering rolling back tariffs on Chinese imports, the yuan has strengthened beyond seven per dollar for the first time since August. The move, if confirmed, "can be regarded as a turning point" in the U.S.-China trade war," according to Ken Cheung, a Mizuho currency strategist. Many had feared the prior tumble past the psychologically important level of 7 threatened to unleash a whole new front in trade hostilities - a currency war. Go deeper: ALT Perspective discusses trade deal progress.

Rationale for T-Bill buying

"With roughly $2.4T of Treasury bills outstanding and daily turnover of around $95B, the bill market has substantial capacity to support our activity, and we expect to be able to maintain the current pace of Treasury bill purchases for some time," said Lorie Logan, who is the acting leader of the Markets Desk at the New York Fed. "So far, reserve management purchase operations have proceeded smoothly," she added, noting that the Fed "is prepared to adjust the pace and other parameters of the reserve management purchases as necessary."

Notable tech names that don't make money

Uber (NYSE:UBER) shares tumbled nearly 6% late Monday after reporting another mega $1.2B loss, though CEO Dara Khosrowshahi expects the company will be EBIDTA profitable in 2021 as it "improves global scale and efficiency” through technology and automation. Next up is Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON), which will release its first quarterly report since going public before the opening bell. Path to profitability? While analysts are expecting the exercise-equipment maker to post a loss of $0.40 cents per share, the Street is still bullish on the stock. Go deeper: SA Authors feel differently, with the majority bearish on PTON shares.

SoftBank's new governance standards

The WeWork (WE) debacle is leading SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) to adopt tougher governance standards as the Japanese group aims to reduce the outsized control of startup founders and restore confidence in the companies it backs. Under consideration are restrictions on dual-class share structures, board seats and voting rights. SoftBank is also set to write down at least $5B today due to a slump in the value of WeWork, as well as some other top holdings. Go deeper: SoftBank Is Trading At A Huge Discount Of 50%, writes Sven Carlin.

Xerox exits Fujifilm joint venture

Bringing an end to their 57-year-old joint venture, Xerox (NYSE:XRX) has agreed to sell its 25% stake in the business to Fujifilm (OTCPK:FUJIY) as part of a deal that will bring the company total proceeds of $2.3B. It will also dismiss a lawsuit filed by Fujifilm against Xerox and comes more than a year and a half after the two agreed to combine in a complex transaction that was sunk by shareholders Carl Icahn and Darwin Deason. The breakup of the JV (and dismissing the suit) could free both firms to make needed strategic shifts. XRX +3.8% premarket. Go deeper: Edward Ambrose provides a look back at Xerox's Q2 performance.

India pulls out of RCEP trade pact

Everything seemed to be going well at the 35th ASEAN Summit - after seven years of talks to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership - until India announced its withdrawal from the trade deal. "This reflects both our assessment of the current global situation as well as of the fairness and balance of the agreement," said Vijay Thakur Singh, a diplomat in charge of East Asian relations for India. Moving on... The remaining 15 countries will continue working towards the pact that would cover nearly a third of the world's GDP, while China announced that India is welcome to join the RCEP whenever it's ready.

OPEC cuts oil demand forecasts

"The outlook for global growth, at least in the short- and medium-term, has been revised down repeatedly over the past year... as U.S. tight oil (shale), in particular, has again outperformed expectations," OPEC wrote in its closely-watched annual World Oil Outlook. As a result, the 14-member group lowered its outlook numbers for global oil demand growth, to 104.8M barrels per day by 2024, and 110.6M bpd by 2040. OPEC's production of crude oil and other liquids is also expected to decline to 32.8M bpd by 2024, compared with 35M bpd in 2019.

Cold weather forecasts boost NG

Nymex natural gas futures continue to climb, up 2.6% to $2.895/MMBtu, bringing their rally to 35% from a multi-year low hit three months ago. Prices soared more than 4% yesterday to their highest level since March, as forecasts call for cooler than expected temperatures across the U.S. in the coming days and weeks. Hedge funds and other speculative investors appear to be turning slightly less bearish, and analysts say an unwind of those bets can exacerbate bullish price moves such as the current one.

Iran nuclear deal unraveling

The EU remains committed to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, though that depends on the Islamic State's "full compliance," as the accord continues to collapse following President Trump's withdrawal from the agreement. Starting tomorrow, Tehran will begin injecting uranium gas into 1,044 centrifuges at its Fordow plant, after already going beyond the deal's enrichment and stockpile limitations. European nations have so far been unable to give Iran a way to help it sell its oil abroad or access its banking system without restrictions as the country faces strict U.S. sanctions.

What else is happening...

Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX likely to return to European service in Q1.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) HR chief departs after CEO firing.

$20 per hour... BofA (NYSE:BAC) accelerates plan on minimum pay.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) commits $2.5B to California housing issues.

Did Vale (NYSE:VALE) CEO ignore warnings before deadly dam disaster?

Goldman (NYSE:GS) CEO latest to blast ECB's negative rates.

Germany boosts subsidies for electric vehicles.

Lindsey Hoyle confirmed as the next U.K. Commons Speaker.

Monday's Key Earnings

Marriott (NASDAQ:MAR) -1.7% AH giving weak full-year outlook. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -0.5% AH amid Anadarko costs. Realty Income (NYSE:O) +0.4% AH nudging up 2019 guidance. Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) -16% on disappointing comparable sales. Sprint (NYSE:S) -2.4% missing expectations. Sysco (NYSE:SYY) -0.6% after mixed quarter. Uber (UBER) -5.9% AH posting $1.2B loss, soft bookings. Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) -18.9% on accounting probe, slashed outlook.

Today's Markets

In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +0.5%. China +0.5%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt flat. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +0.7% to $56.93. Gold -0.3% to $1506.80. Bitcoin +0.4% to $9281. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps tp 1.82%

Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 International Trade 8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 12:40 PM Fed's Kaplan Speech 1:00 PM Results of $38B, 3-Year Note Auction 6:00 PM Fed's Kashkari Speech


Regards,

Roger “Raj” Searing rajsearing@gmail.com

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